All posts by rachel_eaton

Is infrastructure development the biggest catalyst for economic growth in Africa?

April 11, 2014 rachel_eaton

Isabelle Alenus-Crosby

It is generally accepted that global economic growth will increasingly come from emerging markets. Following more than 20 years of hard-won political and economic reform, sub-Saharan Africa is set to play a very important part.

Before the economic crisis, sub-Saharan Africa had been growing quickly, with an average annual growth rate of 6 % YoY. Only in Africa has annual growth not stalled, reinforcing the belief that they may be overtaking other emerging markets more quickly than previously thought. The continent’s sustained growth is not only due to improved political and macroeconomic stability (and a strong commitment to private-sector growth), but also large investments in infrastructure.

In fact, infrastructure spending now amounts to $45 billion a year according to the World Bank. The importance of this cannot be underestimated. Many big infrastructure projects revolve around accessibility to the continent’s natural resources as sub-Saharan Africa is not only a major supplier of natural resources to the rest of the world, but also the region with the greatest potential for new discoveries.

As global growth resumes, the region should benefit from higher prices as well as higher volumes and the right infrastructure needs to be in place sooner rather than later. Africa’s road density is still sparse and the 48 countries of sub-Saharan Africa (with a combined population of 800 million) generate roughly the same amount of power as Spain (with a population of 45 million).

Africa’s water resources are abundant, but because of an absence of water storage and irrigation infrastructure, they are underutilised. With enough investment in this area, Africa can become self-sufficient in food within a couple of decades, which is key to the entire continent’s success. Investments in solar and wind power will ensure that Africa has enough power to become a world player.

Other areas are no less important. For instance, a recent $600 million private investment in high-capacity fibre-optic cable now connects southern and eastern Africa to the global Internet backbone, which is crucial to all companies across the continent, big and small. With regard to ICT, Africa has already caught up with the rest of the world, and together with Africa’s railway systems being expanded by more than 1,000%, it is clear that the continent is on the right track.

Insight

Lagos: Notes from the “surprising, not simply rising” continent

April 8, 2014 rachel_eaton

Sarah Caddy

News broke that Nigeria has overtaken South Africa to become Africa’s largest economy as the 500+ delegates at the African Private Equity and Venture Capital Association’s 11^th annual conference in Lagos returned home (in my case, to a Saharan sand-strewn London).

Africa’s most populous country’s government released revised figures that more or less doubled estimates for its GDP, testament to its increasingly diversified economy and growth of services that tap into the expanding consumer story. Most notably the telecommunications sector has increased from 0.8% of GDP to 8.6%.

Nigeria’s minister for economy and finance, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, is cited by the FT stating that the revision will “validate” the investment thesis to foreign investors increasingly searching for returns in the region.

They may not need reminding, however. AVCA/RisCura/SAVCA research released at the conference, downloadable here, noted that 24% of investors into private equity already find West Africa to be the most attractive region.

“What excites you about Nigeria?” asked William Wallis, Africa Affairs Editor at the FT in his interview with Michael Power, Investec, at the conference. “Its people are extraordinarily enterprising” came the reply. “Africa is not just the rising continent, it is the surprising continent.”

Though with Nigerian pension assets under management (currently NGN4 trillion/$25 billion) estimated (at the conference) to double in just three years, local – rather than foreign – capital may be the investment force to be reckoned with.

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Read more insights from the AVCA conference in Lagos from the Financial Times here.

Watch AVCA’s Chief Executive, Michelle Essomé, on CNBC Africa, which filmed live from the event, here.

Insight

The UN climate change report – a catalyst for technological improvements?

April 1, 2014 rachel_eaton

Isabelle Alenus-Crosby

According to a recent UN report, climate change poses a greater threat to food and security than previously thought. The IPCC warns that global warming is leading to more volatile weather patterns that have already begun reducing crop yields worldwide. As temperatures rise, rainfall patterns change, and pests and diseases spread.

Growing up in various countries in Africa, I was often witness to the type of erratic weather patterns described in the report. I vividly remember a particularly harsh drought in Tanzania the early 1980s, where almost no rain fell for several years. Water shortage in Dar es Salaam was such that lines of people were seen hauling sea water to their homes so that their toilets could be flushed. The little water that came out of the taps was carefully boiled and filtered for drinking and food preparation. People did what they could to save water, and prayed for bad weather.

What I also remember, is that the international community reacted rather surprisingly. Instead of simply sending food parcels to the worse hit areas in the North, it was decided to test out a completely new type of agriculture. Especially designed crops, adapted to the worse climates on earth, delivered very impressive results in less than a decade.

In one of my previous blogs “seeds of change” I mention that thanks to various technological advancements, Africa now has access to crops that are resistant to heat, droughts, floods and pests and may signify that in the future Africa will be exporting food, something that could never have been imagined a couple of decades ago.

It was the punishing climate in many parts of Africa that prompted these technological improvements, saving the African continent as a direct result. Perhaps these same crops will now save the world?

Insight

How to fix the broken science of economics once and for all

March 17, 2014 rachel_eaton

Isabelle Alenus-Crosby

Many authors have written about the failure of economic theory but best-selling financial author, George Cooper, has come up with an original solution on how to fix both economic theory and the economies of the world. He has done this by taking the key ideas from the greatest scientific revolutions in history to re-imagine how our economies really work in the first place.

By illustrating how both our economic theories and our economic policies can be fixed, Cooper is setting out to present a simple idea that has the power to revolutionise how we think about our economies and how our governments set their policies – he calls the idea the circulatory growth model in his new book Money, Blood and Revolution.

The circulatory growth model recognises that capitalism has a tendency towards wealth and income polarisation and explains how this problem can be addressed. For example the model makes it immediately obvious how policies designed to promote borrowing lead directly to lower economic growth, higher income inequality and, in the end, to higher government deficits.

Cooper takes his readers on a journey through the history and philosophy of scientific progress. He compares the confused state of economics today to the confusion which dogged astronomy, medicine, biology and geology prior to their respective revolutions. In doing this he builds a persuasive case that economics is long overdue its very own scientific revolution.

The circulatory growth model has some surprising implications. It shows, for example, why some countries have prospered while others have failed. It also shows why government spending and taxation are necessary for economic growth.

These conclusions fly in the face of today’s accepted mainstream economic ideas, which press always for smaller governments and lower taxation.

Insight

Madagascar elections: what happened next? An update from Emilie Filou.

March 13, 2014 rachel_eaton

Emilie Filou

A month and a half has passed since Madagascar’s new president, Hery Rajaonarimampianina, was sworn in and the results of the parliamentary elections were validated by the electoral court. Yet Madagascar seems no closer to having a new prime minister and a government.

Many expected the new PM to be nominated shortly after the national assembly’s first session on 18 February but the omission of a key word in the 2010 constitution has thrown members of parliament and constitutional law experts alike into a furious debate. The key word is “absolute”, in relation to the majority required in parliament to nominate the Prime Minister.

The constitution simply says that it is the party with a majority in parliament who has the right to nominate the premier (who must then be approved by the president). In the current context, this privilege falls to MAPAR, the party supporting coup leader Andry Rajoelina, who won 76 seats out of 151 in parliament. This has been widely disputed by constitutional experts, who argue that a relative majority would make it impossible to govern.

Case in point, a coalition of 95 MPs opposed to MAPAR set up the Plateforme pour la Majorité Présidentielle (PMP, Platform for the Presidential Majority) in a bid to claim absolute majority in parliament and trump MAPAR’s PM nomination.

Both MAPAR and PMP have therefore put forward a candidate: MAPAR has suggested Haja André Resampa, former general secretary of the presidency during the transition, while PMP has nominated Rolland Jules Etienne, a disqualified candidate in the first round of the presidential elections (who, incidentally, nominated Rajaonarimampianina as his replacement in the presidential race).

The president has so far refused to choose. He’s agreed with the principle that MAPAR should have the right to choose but he’s asked that the party consult with other political entities. Current Premier Jean-Omer Beriziky, who is popular with the international community, is thought to be favoured by the president, although MAPAR isn’t so keen. Rajoelina for his part announced earlier last month that he would no longer seek the PM’s job after it became clear that the president was keen to distance himself from the transition regime.

There is no deadline in the constitution by which the president must choose a Prime Minister and given the importance of the appointment, it’s unlikely Rajaonarimampianina will rush. Madagascar will have to wait a while longer for the post-coup era to start in earnest.

Read our previous blog on our Madagascar event

Insight

Will Equity Crowdfunding have the power to revolutionise the way in which entrepreneurs seek finance in the future?

February 25, 2014 rachel_eaton

Mark Rashid

In a poll, 88% of those who attended MJ Hudson’s Future of Crowdfunding panel event believe that this is the case and the numbers speak for themselves.

Equity Crowdfunding is witnessing increasing levels of interest, especially from SMEs, with 5000 in the UK seeking funding through alternative finance. Over a 3 year period, crowdfunding has increased by 371% (Karma Sandup, Partner at MJ Hudson). This rapid growth of interest in alternative finance has attracted the attention of regulators, resulting in the recent publication of the FCA’s consultation paper.

In light of potential regulation, on February 19th 2014, MJ Hudson, the Alternative Assets Law Firm hosted a panel event around the issues arising from the FCA’s consultation paper for the future of crowdfunding. The event brought together senior management from across a range of predominant crowdfunding platforms such as, CrowdCube, Seedrs, SyndicateRoom and InvestingZone and centred around two main points of interest;

How will regulation affect crowdfunding?
Will crowdfunding survive?

Although some view future regulation of innovative finance as potentially damaging, members of the panel were united in stating that they did not see the FCA’s consultation paper as a threat to the future of crowdfunding. If anything, panel members supported regulation, as a way to brand crowdfunding as a credible financial option. Legal & Financial Director of Seedrs’, Karen Kerrigan highlighted that crowdfunding platforms are not cowboy companies and already adhere to regulation and stated that, “official regulation is a sensible move by the FCA”.

Commenting on the future of crowdfunding, Tom Britton, CTO of SyndicateRoom informed the audience, primarily made up of entrepreneurs and investors that, “the industry will survive, banks don’t want to touch this space, even venture capitalists aren’t keen, unless the prospects are very big”. To support this statement, during the panel event, the audience voted on a live poll. When asked, “Will Equity Crowdfunding have the power to revolutionise the way in which entrepreneurs seek finance in the future?” 88% of people said yes, whereas only 12% said no.

Insight

Africa Trivial pursuit: What sector is the second largest employer in Nigeria?

February 19, 2014 rachel_eaton

Isabelle Alenus-Crosby

Believe it or not, it is culture, with agriculture claiming the top spot. Nigeria produces almost as many films as Bollywood, at more than 50 per week, with each film employing more than a hundred people. It is not surprising therefore that the Nigerian film industry (Nollywood) is worth almost US$ 4 billion.

Africa is rich in talent and creativity, but we don’t get to see much of it (yet). The pool of talent cannot be commercialised due to the lack of crucial infrastructure. Africa’s world of Music, Art, Fashion, Literature, Design isn’t managing to go global, yet it could be a vast contributor to the continent’s economy.

The African Arts Institute, the European Union and UNESCO’s National Commission (among others) have found that culture “contributes substantially to development at national level, fostering economic growth”. A 5-year study, concluded in 2013, found that culture could be as important as a source of income as tourism. And so, as of this year, and thanks to UNESCO’s findings, governments in Africa can now be “officially” persuaded to start giving priority to the type of infrastructure that will facilitate artists to bring their work to the masses.

I expect that Africa’s big transformation in the upcoming years will therefore not just be economic but also cultural. And I for one can’t wait to see what’s going to hit the world when it does.

Insight

Rising Inequality – Impact on Africa?

February 10, 2014 rachel_eaton

Isabelle Alenus-Crosby

“Average wages have barely budged. Inequality has deepened; upward mobility has stalled. The cold, hard fact is that even in the midst of recovery, too many Americans are working more than ever just to get by — let alone get ahead. And too many still aren’t working at all.” – Obama’s State of the Union address on January 28^th, 2014.

A lot of the gains of the global economic recovery that we’ve seen have gone to the people at the very top, particularly the top 1 %. – The Economist, one day later.

In the past week, economic inequality has been all over the news. As always, I read everything with interest whilst wearing my Africa hat.

Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa remains strong with almost a third of countries in the region growing at more than 6% according to the World Bank’s new Africa’s Pulse, a twice-yearly analysis of the issues shaping Africa’s economic prospects. However, as Africa’s growth rates continue to surge, Africa’s Pulse notes that poverty and inequality remain “unacceptably high and the pace of reduction unacceptably slow.”

So, what is being done?

Africa’s pulse states that following the global financial crisis, “a growing number of African countries are setting up social safety nets to protect the health and livelihoods of poor and vulnerable people during periods of adversity”. In addition, “the steady growth of the Middle class is also translating growth into much less inequality”.

However, most of what I’ve read in the mainstream papers on the subject is very pessimistic indeed, and often refer to the United Nation’s Human Development Report of 1999:

“Poverty is everywhere. Gaps between the poorest and the richest people and countries have continued to widen. In 1960, the 20% of the world’s people in the richest countries had 30 times the income of the poorest 20% . In 1977, 74 times as much. What will it be in 50 years’ time?”

I think that the whole world, in particular Africa, is therefore watching the US quite closely to see what answers they come up with.

Insight

Você fala Português?

February 5, 2014 rachel_eaton

Sarah Caddy

If you can’t, chances are you’re missing out, was the message from OMFIF’s conference on the ‘Role of Portugal and the UK in Lusophone Economies’ (February 4^th 2014, London).

Addressing a roundtable of business owners and potential investors looking to expand into Angola and Mozambique, João Alves, Partner at EY, listed the benefits enjoyed by Portugal as a result of its 500 years of common history with the rest of the Lusophone world. Reporting on the findings of his firm’s Attractiveness Survey 2014, which tracks 200+ investor perceptions, Mr. Alves detailed that:

58% of interviewees believe Portugal will improve over the next three years (marking one of the strongest scores for a European country)
95% of investors in Portugal today believe that they will still be doing so in five years’ time

And the reason that investors gave for these bullish views? That Portugal has such strong cultural and linguistic affinities with emerging markets.

With Angola and Mozambique both clocking in over 7% GDP growth, this interest is unsurprising. And despite the oil sector continuing to dominate – it currently accounts for 96% of Angolan exports, for example – the panellists and government representatives were unanimous in providing evidence of rapid sector diversification. Agriculture and telecommunications were two of the most regularly cited, with government agencies like ANIP (@ANIP_US) providing incentives for many non-oil sector businesses.

The swathe of positivity did come with a dose of realism from international law firm Miranda – in Angola, the only real way for a foreign company to build a business is via a local partner. At least the attendees of the conference now have the contacts to do so.

Insight

What makes African business leaders successful?

January 31, 2014 rachel_eaton

Sara Firouzyar

On Wednesday, 29th of January, we had the pleasure of welcoming frontier markets development expert, Jonathan Berman, to an event at the Institute of Directors to discuss his book – Success in Africa – with a diverse group of investors, commentators, multi-national companies and start-ups, some of whom have a long track record of operating on the Continent and some who are just dipping a toe.

Jonathan shared fascinating insights from the CEO interviews which make up the focus of his book – viewing Africa from the perspective of business leaders who are building successful local enterprise. Here are the insights which resonated most strongly with us:

Google ads achieves more click-throughs from Africa than all of Europe. A surprising fact for some sceptics, but one that pointedly demonstrates the current reality of the Continent!
Jonathan likened leaders operating in frontier African markets today to characters like Rockefeller, Carnegie and JP Morgan at the dawn of the 20th Century in the US economy – entrepreneurs whose ambition was matched only by the scale of the opportunity presented to them
To succeed in business in Africa you have to be able to embrace risk – One of the reasons why the Chinese are so successful in Africa as partners to local governments and as suppliers to transforming infrastructure projects is that they have experienced this in their own country first hand within their own lifetimes.
There are regulatory uncertainties and there is corruption within Africa, as within many other emerging, frontier and indeed developed markets, but long-term transparent relationships are the best way to negate these risks
Successful businesses in Africa earn their ‘license to operate’ from local people by aligning their interests with the interests of their shareholders. Developing your business while also developing local economies and societies is a strategy that all of the CEOs Berman spoke with championed.

We continue to be inspired by African stories and are grateful for everyone that came and contributed to the conversation.