Category Archives: Insight

Madagascar elections: what happened next? An update from Emilie Filou.

March 13, 2014 rachel_eaton

Emilie Filou

A month and a half has passed since Madagascar’s new president, Hery Rajaonarimampianina, was sworn in and the results of the parliamentary elections were validated by the electoral court. Yet Madagascar seems no closer to having a new prime minister and a government.

Many expected the new PM to be nominated shortly after the national assembly’s first session on 18 February but the omission of a key word in the 2010 constitution has thrown members of parliament and constitutional law experts alike into a furious debate. The key word is “absolute”, in relation to the majority required in parliament to nominate the Prime Minister.

The constitution simply says that it is the party with a majority in parliament who has the right to nominate the premier (who must then be approved by the president). In the current context, this privilege falls to MAPAR, the party supporting coup leader Andry Rajoelina, who won 76 seats out of 151 in parliament. This has been widely disputed by constitutional experts, who argue that a relative majority would make it impossible to govern.

Case in point, a coalition of 95 MPs opposed to MAPAR set up the Plateforme pour la Majorité Présidentielle (PMP, Platform for the Presidential Majority) in a bid to claim absolute majority in parliament and trump MAPAR’s PM nomination.

Both MAPAR and PMP have therefore put forward a candidate: MAPAR has suggested Haja André Resampa, former general secretary of the presidency during the transition, while PMP has nominated Rolland Jules Etienne, a disqualified candidate in the first round of the presidential elections (who, incidentally, nominated Rajaonarimampianina as his replacement in the presidential race).

The president has so far refused to choose. He’s agreed with the principle that MAPAR should have the right to choose but he’s asked that the party consult with other political entities. Current Premier Jean-Omer Beriziky, who is popular with the international community, is thought to be favoured by the president, although MAPAR isn’t so keen. Rajoelina for his part announced earlier last month that he would no longer seek the PM’s job after it became clear that the president was keen to distance himself from the transition regime.

There is no deadline in the constitution by which the president must choose a Prime Minister and given the importance of the appointment, it’s unlikely Rajaonarimampianina will rush. Madagascar will have to wait a while longer for the post-coup era to start in earnest.

Read our previous blog on our Madagascar event

Insight

Will Equity Crowdfunding have the power to revolutionise the way in which entrepreneurs seek finance in the future?

February 25, 2014 rachel_eaton

Mark Rashid

In a poll, 88% of those who attended MJ Hudson’s Future of Crowdfunding panel event believe that this is the case and the numbers speak for themselves.

Equity Crowdfunding is witnessing increasing levels of interest, especially from SMEs, with 5000 in the UK seeking funding through alternative finance. Over a 3 year period, crowdfunding has increased by 371% (Karma Sandup, Partner at MJ Hudson). This rapid growth of interest in alternative finance has attracted the attention of regulators, resulting in the recent publication of the FCA’s consultation paper.

In light of potential regulation, on February 19th 2014, MJ Hudson, the Alternative Assets Law Firm hosted a panel event around the issues arising from the FCA’s consultation paper for the future of crowdfunding. The event brought together senior management from across a range of predominant crowdfunding platforms such as, CrowdCube, Seedrs, SyndicateRoom and InvestingZone and centred around two main points of interest;

How will regulation affect crowdfunding?
Will crowdfunding survive?

Although some view future regulation of innovative finance as potentially damaging, members of the panel were united in stating that they did not see the FCA’s consultation paper as a threat to the future of crowdfunding. If anything, panel members supported regulation, as a way to brand crowdfunding as a credible financial option. Legal & Financial Director of Seedrs’, Karen Kerrigan highlighted that crowdfunding platforms are not cowboy companies and already adhere to regulation and stated that, “official regulation is a sensible move by the FCA”.

Commenting on the future of crowdfunding, Tom Britton, CTO of SyndicateRoom informed the audience, primarily made up of entrepreneurs and investors that, “the industry will survive, banks don’t want to touch this space, even venture capitalists aren’t keen, unless the prospects are very big”. To support this statement, during the panel event, the audience voted on a live poll. When asked, “Will Equity Crowdfunding have the power to revolutionise the way in which entrepreneurs seek finance in the future?” 88% of people said yes, whereas only 12% said no.

Insight

Africa Trivial pursuit: What sector is the second largest employer in Nigeria?

February 19, 2014 rachel_eaton

Isabelle Alenus-Crosby

Believe it or not, it is culture, with agriculture claiming the top spot. Nigeria produces almost as many films as Bollywood, at more than 50 per week, with each film employing more than a hundred people. It is not surprising therefore that the Nigerian film industry (Nollywood) is worth almost US$ 4 billion.

Africa is rich in talent and creativity, but we don’t get to see much of it (yet). The pool of talent cannot be commercialised due to the lack of crucial infrastructure. Africa’s world of Music, Art, Fashion, Literature, Design isn’t managing to go global, yet it could be a vast contributor to the continent’s economy.

The African Arts Institute, the European Union and UNESCO’s National Commission (among others) have found that culture “contributes substantially to development at national level, fostering economic growth”. A 5-year study, concluded in 2013, found that culture could be as important as a source of income as tourism. And so, as of this year, and thanks to UNESCO’s findings, governments in Africa can now be “officially” persuaded to start giving priority to the type of infrastructure that will facilitate artists to bring their work to the masses.

I expect that Africa’s big transformation in the upcoming years will therefore not just be economic but also cultural. And I for one can’t wait to see what’s going to hit the world when it does.

Insight

Rising Inequality – Impact on Africa?

February 10, 2014 rachel_eaton

Isabelle Alenus-Crosby

“Average wages have barely budged. Inequality has deepened; upward mobility has stalled. The cold, hard fact is that even in the midst of recovery, too many Americans are working more than ever just to get by — let alone get ahead. And too many still aren’t working at all.” – Obama’s State of the Union address on January 28^th, 2014.

A lot of the gains of the global economic recovery that we’ve seen have gone to the people at the very top, particularly the top 1 %. – The Economist, one day later.

In the past week, economic inequality has been all over the news. As always, I read everything with interest whilst wearing my Africa hat.

Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa remains strong with almost a third of countries in the region growing at more than 6% according to the World Bank’s new Africa’s Pulse, a twice-yearly analysis of the issues shaping Africa’s economic prospects. However, as Africa’s growth rates continue to surge, Africa’s Pulse notes that poverty and inequality remain “unacceptably high and the pace of reduction unacceptably slow.”

So, what is being done?

Africa’s pulse states that following the global financial crisis, “a growing number of African countries are setting up social safety nets to protect the health and livelihoods of poor and vulnerable people during periods of adversity”. In addition, “the steady growth of the Middle class is also translating growth into much less inequality”.

However, most of what I’ve read in the mainstream papers on the subject is very pessimistic indeed, and often refer to the United Nation’s Human Development Report of 1999:

“Poverty is everywhere. Gaps between the poorest and the richest people and countries have continued to widen. In 1960, the 20% of the world’s people in the richest countries had 30 times the income of the poorest 20% . In 1977, 74 times as much. What will it be in 50 years’ time?”

I think that the whole world, in particular Africa, is therefore watching the US quite closely to see what answers they come up with.

Insight

Você fala Português?

February 5, 2014 rachel_eaton

Sarah Caddy

If you can’t, chances are you’re missing out, was the message from OMFIF’s conference on the ‘Role of Portugal and the UK in Lusophone Economies’ (February 4^th 2014, London).

Addressing a roundtable of business owners and potential investors looking to expand into Angola and Mozambique, João Alves, Partner at EY, listed the benefits enjoyed by Portugal as a result of its 500 years of common history with the rest of the Lusophone world. Reporting on the findings of his firm’s Attractiveness Survey 2014, which tracks 200+ investor perceptions, Mr. Alves detailed that:

58% of interviewees believe Portugal will improve over the next three years (marking one of the strongest scores for a European country)
95% of investors in Portugal today believe that they will still be doing so in five years’ time

And the reason that investors gave for these bullish views? That Portugal has such strong cultural and linguistic affinities with emerging markets.

With Angola and Mozambique both clocking in over 7% GDP growth, this interest is unsurprising. And despite the oil sector continuing to dominate – it currently accounts for 96% of Angolan exports, for example – the panellists and government representatives were unanimous in providing evidence of rapid sector diversification. Agriculture and telecommunications were two of the most regularly cited, with government agencies like ANIP (@ANIP_US) providing incentives for many non-oil sector businesses.

The swathe of positivity did come with a dose of realism from international law firm Miranda – in Angola, the only real way for a foreign company to build a business is via a local partner. At least the attendees of the conference now have the contacts to do so.

Insight

What makes African business leaders successful?

January 31, 2014 rachel_eaton

Sara Firouzyar

On Wednesday, 29th of January, we had the pleasure of welcoming frontier markets development expert, Jonathan Berman, to an event at the Institute of Directors to discuss his book – Success in Africa – with a diverse group of investors, commentators, multi-national companies and start-ups, some of whom have a long track record of operating on the Continent and some who are just dipping a toe.

Jonathan shared fascinating insights from the CEO interviews which make up the focus of his book – viewing Africa from the perspective of business leaders who are building successful local enterprise. Here are the insights which resonated most strongly with us:

Google ads achieves more click-throughs from Africa than all of Europe. A surprising fact for some sceptics, but one that pointedly demonstrates the current reality of the Continent!
Jonathan likened leaders operating in frontier African markets today to characters like Rockefeller, Carnegie and JP Morgan at the dawn of the 20th Century in the US economy – entrepreneurs whose ambition was matched only by the scale of the opportunity presented to them
To succeed in business in Africa you have to be able to embrace risk – One of the reasons why the Chinese are so successful in Africa as partners to local governments and as suppliers to transforming infrastructure projects is that they have experienced this in their own country first hand within their own lifetimes.
There are regulatory uncertainties and there is corruption within Africa, as within many other emerging, frontier and indeed developed markets, but long-term transparent relationships are the best way to negate these risks
Successful businesses in Africa earn their ‘license to operate’ from local people by aligning their interests with the interests of their shareholders. Developing your business while also developing local economies and societies is a strategy that all of the CEOs Berman spoke with championed.

We continue to be inspired by African stories and are grateful for everyone that came and contributed to the conversation.

Insight

Are you considering investing in Africa?

January 27, 2014 rachel_eaton

Isabelle Alenus-Crosby

According to the World’s leading forecasters, the African economy is expected to grow by approximately 6% during 2013/14, while its total GDP is expected to reach USD 2.6 trillion by 2020. The Nigerian stock market alone returned 47.2 % in 2013.

This is great news, but where should one invest?

Let me quickly state the obvious; Rapid urbanisation on the continent means that priority needs to be given to infrastructure (mostly power and transportation). Africa has a growing population of young, globally minded people who increasingly use mobile phones and the internet. The banking industry is expanding with growing income levels, as is consumer demand, and a population explosion requires more schools and hospitals. The African continent is also said to be on its way to become the world’s low-cost manufacturing hub.

A CNBC news reporter recently stated that sub-Saharan Africa, which was once seen as a pure commodity play (or as a part of the world to avoid entirely) is now the place to get big returns on relatively small investments.

The key issue is of course the risk/reward balance. Investment-grade countries like South Africa, Botswana and Namibia might offer lower returns than countries with higher risk like Nigeria, Ghana, Tanzania and Kenya. The bottom-line is that Africa offers numerous opportunities and that they are as varied as the 54 countries of the African Union.

The overall buzz resounding around the globe however, is that the time is now!

Insight

5 things we didn’t know about Madagascar

January 24, 2014 rachel_eaton

Sarah Nicholas

On Thursday morning, we welcomed journalist Emilie Filou for a breakfast briefing on Madagascar – an island which is hugely under-reported in the English language press, and that even Africa experts often know little about. Emilie’s presentation was packed with new information; these are the updates which particularly stuck in our mind:

1. The cost of Madagascar’s political crisis

The political coup in 2009 had a huge impact on the economy – the World Bank estimates that the cost of the crisis has reached about $8 billion. While Madagascar still lags behind its neighbours on the African continent, it is beginning to recover.

2. A turning point?

The confirmation last week (17 January) of Hery Rajaonarimampianina as the first officially elected president of Madagascar in five years has been greeted with cautious optimism by the international community. Hery’s choice of Prime Minister will be the most significant indication of whether anything will truly change under his leadership. If the country can take advantage of its strategic location between growing Asian and African markets and its cheap workforce, it could still return to the pre-coup growth rates of 6-7%.

3. Out of the crisis rises opportunity

– A backlog of 4,000 mining permits and 223 oil exploration licenses have accumulated since the crisis, as well as a huge backlog of infrastructure and construction projects

– Agribusiness is beginning to benefit from new foreign investment, and with 90% of the population employed in agriculture and 70% of the island’s land used for arable, there is great potential in this secto

– Tourism was Madagascar’s second largest cash earner before the crisis. About 70% of the island’s fauna and 90% of its flora is endemic, and both Lonely Planet and Rough Guides cited the island in their ‘Top 10 Destinations’ in 2013 and 2014

4. Challenges remain – national electricity production capacity is 0.5 MW

Madagascar remains one of the toughest markets in which to do business, which will take time and concerted effort from a committed leadership to redress. Corruption is culturally embedded, bureaucracy is burdensome, and – as anyone who has spent time in the country can testify – infrastructure is severely lacking. Electricity supply is unreliable and road density is just 9.7km/1000km², compared to the sub-Saharan average of 31km/1000km². And while Madagascar’s population is young and labour is cheap, education is poor and two thirds of teachers have no formal teaching qualification and often do not speak French – the language of the national curriculum.

5. How to pronounce Hery Rajaonarimampianina’s name

The audience were suitably impressed when the longest name of any head of state tripped of Emilie’s tongue. For those who are still perplexed:

listen to ‘How to pronounce the name of Madagascar’s new president: Hery Rajaonarimampianina’ on Audioboo

Emilie Filou is a freelance journalist specialising in business and development in Africa. Her work has been featured in The Economist, The Guardian and BBC Radio 4’s ‘From Our Own Correspondent’, as well as contributing to the Lonely Planet guide to Madagascar in 2011. She revisited the island in 2013, and is available for commissioned articles and briefings on the country. Email: filouemilie@yahoo.com

Insight

Setting the example

January 22, 2014 rachel_eaton

Isabelle Alenus-Crosby

Quite recently, the five members of the East African Community (EAC) agreed to adopt a single currency, which should go into effect within the next 10 years. Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi first came together in 2000 to create a common market and single customs union, modeled after the Eurozone. The aim is to make business a lot easier across East Africa. If their model is a success, then the entire African Union might follow suit.

When 50+ African countries are watching your every move, setting the example can be quite daunting. After all, success could contribute highly to the continued economic success of Africa (no pressure).

Of course, regional integration is a deeply political process and the implementation of a single customs territory has important political aspects.

However, East-Africans are already thinking of themselves as just that: East Africans. There are rumours that Burundi, like Rwanda, wants to adopt English as their common language in order to assure the Union’s success, and all reports following the numerous meetings between the five EAC leaders are very positive. Having spent a considerable time in all five countries myself, I am convinced that the Union will be a resounding success, even if there are quite a few reported delays at the moment.

Rome wasn’t built in a day after all. And neither was the Eurozone.

Insight

Whose Success in Africa?

January 14, 2014 rachel_eaton

Jonathan Berman

“It is Africa’s ambition and no-one else’s that leads Africa. Africa is not a place that success is landing on; it is a place creating success for itself and others.”

I was glad the team at Gong plucked this phrase from my book Success in Africa as the banner for their upcoming event in London. For in London, as in my native New York and my current home, Washington, I find many understand that Africa is succeeding. Few understand why. Almost none acknowledge it’s mostly because of Africans.

In March of last year, a general election campaign was underway in Kenya. Western leaders urged the people of Kenya to refrain from violence. It seemed reasonable, as Kenya experienced horrific violence in its 2007 elections. But no one knew that better than Kenyans. They didn’t need foreign heads of state to tell them about it.

At their best, successful managers of global capital and global businesses do much better in this regard. Their practices allow them to transfer skills, networks and corporate cultures that work in the African context, and are welcomed there by capable partners and stakeholders. I asked some of the CEOs who lead those global companies to participate in Success in Africa, and they shared their perspectives alongside mine.

Of course, no one knows better how to succeed in Africa than Africans. That may seem an obvious point, but consider how often, in any medium, you hear management wisdom from an African? I have worked with corporate leaders in the US, Europe, Asia and Africa. In my view, some of the most visionary and accomplished business men and women anywhere are the ones leading the current transformation of Africa. Emerging continents have been the wellspring of transformative business leaders before. Rockefeller. Carnegie. Tata. From the US in the 19^th century to Africa today, frontier markets have given rise to business leaders uniquely capable of managing uncertainty, generating disruption, and leading breathtaking growth.

Those are skills in demand not just in Africa, but the world over.