Rising Inequality – Impact on Africa?

 

Isabelle Alenus-Crosby

“Average wages have barely budged. Inequality has deepened; upward mobility has stalled. The cold, hard fact is that even in the midst of recovery, too many Americans are working more than ever just to get by — let alone get ahead. And too many still aren’t working at all.” – Obama’s State of the Union address on January 28th, 2014.

A lot of the gains of the global economic recovery that we’ve seen have gone to the people at the very top, particularly the top 1 %. – The Economist, one day later.

In the past week, economic inequality has been all over the news. As always, I read everything with interest whilst wearing my Africa hat.

Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa remains strong with almost a third of countries in the region growing at more than 6% according to the World Bank’s new Africa’s Pulse, a twice-yearly analysis of the issues shaping Africa’s economic prospects. However, as Africa’s growth rates continue to surge, Africa’s Pulse notes that poverty and inequality remain “unacceptably high and the pace of reduction unacceptably slow.”

So, what is being done?

Africa’s pulse states that following the global financial crisis, “a growing number of African countries are setting up social safety nets to protect the health and livelihoods of poor and vulnerable people during periods of adversity”. In addition, “the steady growth of the Middle class is also translating growth into much less inequality”.

However, most of what I’ve read in the mainstream papers on the subject is very pessimistic indeed, and often refer to the United Nation’s Human Development Report of 1999:

“Poverty is everywhere. Gaps between the poorest and the richest people and countries have continued to widen. In 1960, the 20% of the world’s people in the richest countries had 30 times the income of the poorest 20% . In 1977, 74 times as much. What will it be in 50 years’ time?”

I think that the whole world, in particular Africa, is therefore watching the US quite closely to see what answers they come up with. 

 

Happy New Year

 

Isabelle Alenus-Crosby

The good news is that Africa’s economic outlook for 2014 remains promising with an overall projected growth of 5.3%. Should the global economy recover faster than predicted, then sub-Saharan Africa’s economy might expand by as much as 6.0% according to the IMF. This is consistent with the average long-term trend growth rate of approximately 5.5% between 2000 and 2010.

According to the World Bank, an economic rebound would also scale up investments in much-needed infrastructure (physical and economic) which will lead to policy reforms that will improve the overall business environment. In addition, African market performances in 2013 have proven that investments into Africa can continue to offer a sound return. Investment levels are expected to remain buoyant (again according to the World Bank), with private investments expected to double in areas such as consumption and infrastructure.

Happy New Year indeed!

 

Africa invests in Africa

 

Isabelle Alenus-Crosby

A growing number of African countries are rapidly joining the ranks of prominent investors across the continent.

According to the International Finance Corporation (IFC), the rate of FDI projects from emerging markets has grown at a healthy compound rate of over 21% since 2008 (triple the amount from developed markets). The top investors were still India, the United Arab Emirates and China at the start of 2013, but intra-African investment has become very impressive since then. Nobody knows Africa better than Africans, and continued political stability across the continent is making them trust their own. The beauty is that increased economic stability and growth is allowing them to help accelerate the African success story through rapidly increasing cross-border investments.

SA has been at the forefront of the growth in intra-African trade but Kenya, Ghana and Nigeria are also investing heavily this year. From 2014, it is expected that countries like Angola and Mozambique will join their ranks.

The star performers, so far, in 2013, are Ghana, Nigeria, Cote d’Ivoire, Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia, Mozambique, Mauritius, Ethiopia, Namibia, Botswana, Angola and South Africa.

THE World Bank’s investment arm will increase lending to sub-Saharan Africa by up to a quarter in 2014 as private sector companies continue to flock to the region. The IFC is expected to make new investments of USD 5bn and Japan will provide USD 2bn worth of financial support over the next five years to back Japanese-owned development projects on the continent. Europe and the United States are also expected to increase their investments dramatically according to the World Bank, which sees Sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP accelerating to almost 6% over three years, driven by investment and commodity prices.

Roughly half the IFC’s annual lending in the region goes to financial markets and institutions to help improve the flow of credit to smaller businesses, which employ most of Africa’s workers. Another third goes to infrastructure projects and natural resources investments. The expanding sets of SMEs is bringing real economic diversification and are giving rise to internationally competitive companies, thereby providing access to global markets, and consequently higher wages and salaries. This, in turn,  leads to the rapid growth of the middle-class and further political stability.

Even the most cautious investors have to admit that all the excitement surrounding Africa is grounded on solid analytical soil. The evidence might be that within a decade Africa will be its own biggest investor. I honestly cannot wait.

More good news for Africa: Consumer spending and private investment is up

 

Sarah Caddy

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than 60 % of Africa’s GDP, remained strong last year according to a World Bank report.

The trend was driven by declining inflation across the continent and improved access to credit in Angola, Ghana, Mozambique, South Africa, Nigeria and Zambia.  In addition, interest rates were much lower in 2012 than in 2011 and we witnessed a spectacular rebound in agricultural income thanks to stable weather conditions. Especially Guinea, Mauritania and Niger experienced good rains compared to 2011, but less crops failed in general across the continent compared to the previous years.

We also have to add the steady remittance inflows to the good news coming from Africa, currently estimated at $31 billion.

Not to be sneezed at are the increased investments that are supporting the region’s growth performance. In 2012, for example, net private capital flows into the region increased by 3.3 % to a record $54.5 billion; and foreign direct investment inflows to the region increased by 5.5 % in 2012 to $37.7 billion.

The World Bank report also mentioned that exports are increasingly helping the continent’s growth and that the traditional destination of these goods over the last decade is also changing. Since 2000, the overall growth of sub-Saharan exports to emerging markets and other African countries has surpassed that to developed markets. Africans are increasingly selling to and buying from other Africans, which is the best news of all.

Causing a stir: The fifth BRICS Summit

 

Isabelle Alenus-Crosby

The BRICS account for 21% of world GDP (IMF), 17% of world trade, and over 40% of the world’s population. This year, BRICS is expected to grow at almost 5%, well above the world average (at 3.6%).

This year’s summit therefore received quite a lot of media attention, and not just due to the attendance of the brand-new Chinese President Xi Jinping, nor because of the above statistics.

For South Africa, which makes up just 2.5% of total GDP in BRICS, the summit was an opportunity to showcase its role as an investment gateway to Africa and President Zuma therefore invited 15 African heads of state to attend. Tensions between South Africa and Nigeria (surrounding Nigeria’s belief that they should also be part of BRICS) means that President Goodluck Jonathan did not attend, but other heads of state including Angola, Cote d’Ivoire, Senegal, Uganda, Ethiopia and Egypt, did. Each country actively showcased its nation, grabbing the momentum of the African continent’s current economic boom.

What caused the greatest stir however, were the talks about the establishment of a development bank, which would rival the World Bank and the IMF, and is meant to fund infrastructure and development projects in member states and developing nations, through a joint foreign reserves fund.

The discussions of where the bank will be, or how much money each nation will contribute, did not reach a conclusion. Several experts and officials have said the bank will start with 50 billion dollars, divided equally. BRICS members are clearly seeking greater sway in global finance to match their rising economic power. Undoubtedly the “New Development Bank” will be top of next year’s agenda. The 2014 Summit will be held in Brazil.