Category Archives: Insight

Finding Alpha in Africa

April 22, 2013 rachel_eaton

Sarah Caddy

Joining the African Venture Capital Association’s Board of Directors’ meeting, I sit awaiting my turn to present on the crucial role communications has played in supporting the Association in recent months.

I am privileged to a sneak preview of some ground breaking research, collated over several months. Given the need – which we hear reiterated over and over again in our work with all our African clients – for independent and well-researched data on the African markets, I think it is worth summarising here.

First, Cambridge Associates, in partnership with AVCA, has developed the first African PE Performance Benchmark, which serves to help investors assess and participate in private investment opportunities in Africa. The findings of the benchmark were wide-ranging, as illustrated by the resulting media coverage, but a key headline was that African private equity funds outperformed US venture capital over last decade. All good news for Africa.

The positive stories didn’t stop there: AVCA and Ernst & Young also announced their joint research on African private equity exits. Private equity is a clear winner; the research shows that African PE firms are not only making excellent headway with generating exits, they are making strong returns in the process – almost double that of the JSE All Share Index.

When the research later broke to the packed hall of 400+ delegates here in Cape Town, Twitter went wild. The appetite for research of this kind is clearly huge from industry and media alike, with most of the afternoon of day two spent facilitating journalist calls and appearances on CNBC. It will be interesting to follow the impact these regularly updated reports have on the industry in months and years to come.

Read more on AVCA’s conference from The Economist’s Boabab correspondent, here.

Insight

Causing a stir: The fifth BRICS Summit

April 9, 2013 rachel_eaton

Isabelle Alenus-Crosby

The BRICS account for 21% of world GDP (IMF), 17% of world trade, and over 40% of the world’s population. This year, BRICS is expected to grow at almost 5%, well above the world average (at 3.6%).

This year’s summit therefore received quite a lot of media attention, and not just due to the attendance of the brand-new Chinese President Xi Jinping, nor because of the above statistics.

For South Africa, which makes up just 2.5% of total GDP in BRICS, the summit was an opportunity to showcase its role as an investment gateway to Africa and President Zuma therefore invited 15 African heads of state to attend. Tensions between South Africa and Nigeria (surrounding Nigeria’s belief that they should also be part of BRICS) means that President Goodluck Jonathan did not attend, but other heads of state including Angola, Cote d’Ivoire, Senegal, Uganda, Ethiopia and Egypt, did. Each country actively showcased its nation, grabbing the momentum of the African continent’s current economic boom.

What caused the greatest stir however, were the talks about the establishment of a development bank, which would rival the World Bank and the IMF, and is meant to fund infrastructure and development projects in member states and developing nations, through a joint foreign reserves fund.

The discussions of where the bank will be, or how much money each nation will contribute, did not reach a conclusion. Several experts and officials have said the bank will start with 50 billion dollars, divided equally. BRICS members are clearly seeking greater sway in global finance to match their rising economic power. Undoubtedly the “New Development Bank” will be top of next year’s agenda. The 2014 Summit will be held in Brazil.

Insight

The “Where and Why” of investing in Africa

March 11, 2013 rachel_eaton

Isabelle Alenus-Crosby

Gong recently hosted a breakfast meeting chaired by The Economist’s Business Editor, Robert Guest.

One of the topics discussed was that too much “ignorant” money is going into Africa simply because there are not enough listed companies outside of Nigeria. The big question is therefore “where to invest?” Where are the various opportunities that tomorrow’s Africa presents, and what makes one country more attractive than another?

With 54 diverse markets offering unique prospects and challenges, most delegates had different opinions. What they didn’t have however, was conflicting opinions. Most agreed that there are still only a handful of good entry point to expand into Africa today.

Here are the top 5.

1. With a population of 170 million people, a growing middle class, and a reputable stock exchange, Nigeria is a notable market for those looking to target a large consumer base in Africa. With reformed petroleum regulations, Nigeria has also become an appealing market for multinational companies.

2. Ghana is doing incredibly well and has proven to be politically stable. The fact that Ghana and Nigeria have space programmes is a measure of how much these two countries are ahead of the game. The difference between Ghana and other countries is that everything (power, institutions, infrastructure) works. With the discovery of offshore oil, the country now really has everything to soon be claiming the number 1 spot.

3. Kenya is more business friendly compared to other regions on the continent. In addition, there is access to good human capital, excellent IT infrastructure, and IT skills.

4. Tanzania has always been politically stable and is therefore emerging as the most effective gateway for trade into Eastern, Southern and Central Africa. It has lucrative investment opportunities in infrastructure, privatization and value-adding facilities, and oil has recently been discovered off-shore.

5. Mozambique is developing at a rapid pace, has much oil and is also politically stable.

I should add that Ethiopia received an honourable mention at the Gong breakfast meeting; It has become Africa’s fastest-growing non-energy economy and Diageo and Heineken recently paid nearly $400m combined to acquire state breweries in the country. Ethiopia is not for the faint-hearted, however. Its population of 85 million people still ranks among the world’s poorest.

The conclusion was to watch what the diaspora is doing – and they are returning first and foremost to our top 3.

Insight

Countdown to Kenyan elections

March 2, 2013 rachel_eaton

Kirsten Smith

It’s Saturday. Having listened all week to local radio stations talk about peace (in 2007 the press were taking sides, so having the media on board is very important this time round), and with all the peace rallies that have been held, (there’s another one happening today I think), and peace concerts, and deliberately-public shows of the two main candidates, Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga, shaking hands, and President Kibaki appealing for ‘the losers to accept defeat and winner to embrace rivals’, the general feeling here in Nairobi is that everyone is doing all they can for Monday to be a peaceful day.

Not that there aren’t queues at petrol stations today with people stocking up on fuel, and supermarkets full of local residents buying up supplies, but that’s just in case.

There might be skirmishes at polling stations people say, but the real danger comes once the results are announced on Wednesday or Thursday, and then no one knows what will happen. There has already been trouble in other parts of the country, and there are rumours of the intimidation gangs of 2007 regrouping.

Monday is a holiday. Polling stations will open at 6am and close at 5pm, but if you are already in the queue at 5, you will be allowed to vote, so I’m told that people will probably be casting their votes up until about 9pm. I’m relying on taxi drivers for the word on the street – perhaps not the most reliable source of information but then I’ve never claimed to be a journalist and I usually find I learn a lot of interesting things from taxi drivers.

For example, what I hadn’t realised until this week was that everyone will be voting for six different people, from the President as Head of State, to the Governor (there are 47 counties so will be 47 Governors elected on Monday), Senator (47 again), Member of Parliament representing every constituency (eg Nairobi has 17 constituencies), a woman representative (47 women will be elected as part of the new constitution, which says each county gets a woman representative), and then finally a County Ward Representative (initially called councillors) – so everyone is voting for 6 different people! Andrew, my favourite taxi driver with whom I regularly sit in Nairobi traffic having long conversations, is confident that most people understand the new system and know what they have to do. He patiently explained the whole thing to me, including percentages. 98% of the 14 million registered electorate will vote on Monday he says.

I think it’s very positive that Kenya has automated it’s voting system, so it’s all digital this time round and supposedly less likely to be rigged as a result. But this election has also apparently been one of the most expensive in the world to organise, and Kenyan politicians are some of the highest paid, which is not so great to hear.

Last year in August everyone voted for the new Constitution, a simple ‘yes’ or ‘no’ vote, and were given a booklet outlining all of the information they needed on how the new constitution would work. 90% voted yes. DJs on Royal Media radio stations in each of the different tribal languages worked hard to explain the details and make sure everyone knew what was what. 90% of Kenyans now understand what it’s about and how it all works (again, these numbers are from Andrew, and by no means official stats, but a cheering vote of confidence on the new system and your fellow Kenyan).

I tried to register two SIM cards this week and spent ages waiting for someone to do all the paperwork, and then once I’d left found that only one works because it isn’t registered. Admittedly that was Safaricom, but getting six votes accurately inputted into the new digital system, and counted up is going to be quite a feat in and of itself.

And who’s going to win? Uhuru is from the Kikuyu tribe and Raila is Luo, and Kikuyu vastly outnumber the Luo in Kenya (Barak Obama’s father was Luo). Andrew reckons Uhuru will win hands down and that lots of other tribes are voting for him as well, but someone pointed out to me that Andrew’s Kikuyu, so he would say that.

He also assures me it will be peaceful.

Insight

An energy revolution is taking place in East Africa as huge resources of geothermal steam beneath the Great Rift Valley starts to be exploited

February 25, 2013 rachel_eaton

Isabelle Alenus-Crosby

“Without sufficient Energy, it is impossible to change an Economy” – Jeremy Rifkin

As the entire East-African region is about to experience a geothermal energy boom, it will also play an important part in preserving the planet

Experts estimate that the geothermal potential of the East African Rift Valley, a geothermal hot-spot that spans 11 countries, will be essential for the area’s continued GDP growth. Geothermal energy, which is heat from the earth, is cost effective, reliable, sustainable, and environmentally friendly. This new energy therefore has the added bonus of cutting greenhouse gas emissions, and since the earth constantly generates heat, it can also be regarded as renewable.

The East African Rift Valley system is estimated to potentially produce 15,000MW of electricity within the next few years. Recent, enhanced technologies are reducing the unit price of geothermal energy and thus meeting the economic needs of all citizens, including the poor. According to the UN, the geothermal boom could lift millions out of poverty within the next decade.

The good news out of Africa just keeps on coming!

Insight

The 8th of March is International Women’s Day

February 22, 2013 rachel_eaton

Isabelle Alenus-Crosby

The need for this day is due to the unfortunate fact that women are still the most discriminated against group of people. One result of the inequality between men and women is that out of the + 2 billion poor, 75% are women (USAID).

As the world’s 10 poorest countries are found in Africa, I will dedicate this blog to the continent’s rural women, and what they’ve achieved in the past couple of decades.

In the 1990s, microfinance initiatives were introduced to Africa, and they were very often directed towards rural women as they bear a disproportionate burden of poverty (80% according to the World Bank). Microfinance services, especially microcredit, focus on small loans which have been shown to ultimately help with poverty reduction. Since 2001, the WHO has published several reports accentuating the success of these services with women in Africa.

One of the most important conclusions is that women are more likely to spend the money they borrow in ways that are more beneficial to their household in the long run. In addition, they proportionally spend more of their extra income on things that help develop human capital, better sanitation, better nutrition and also better health care and education than men. Whatever these loans are used for, the results are often remarkable, and repayment rates much higher than those of men (92% according to the Hunger Project). These are the Africans that are truly changing the face of the continent, and they certainly merit their day.

Other remarkable women are, of course, found in government. Ghandi wrote “if non-violence is the law of our being, the future is with women”. In a previous blog, “Africa’s Power Shift?”, I mention that the Rwandan parliament is made up of 56% women. According to President Kagame, whom I interviewed in 2007, the main reason for this is because women will do everything in their power to avoid genocide. I can think of many other excellent reasons for more female politicians world-wide, but that’s admittedly a particularly good one.

Insight

Africa’s Brain Gain – Implications for Kenya

February 12, 2013 rachel_eaton

Isabelle Alenus-Crosby

In the past couple of years, Africa has received an ever increasing amount of good press thanks to its unfaltering growing collective GDP.

One of the direct results of this positivism has been that the continent’s brain drain is slowly reversing, and turning into a brain gain instead.

In order for this return of the diaspora to last, stability is just as crucial as booming economies. This is why Ghana has been on top of the list for the past decade. Should Kenya have trouble-free elections in March, it is expected that many “diasporans” will return there too.

Understanding the importance of the upcoming elections, Kenya’s mobile operator, Safaricom, has partnered with Sisi Ni Amani, an NGO, and launched an SMS platform to promote the peace. This platform will allow community “peace” ambassadors to send out positive messages targeted at specific incidents at a micro level with the aim of preventing, reducing or stopping election violence.

With so much at stake, the Kenyan government has adopted a new constitution and made widespread modifications to its electoral system. A significant change is that the new laws enable diaspora voting. By giving diasporans the power to have their say, they might feel more inclined to return home and play a crucial part in the new Africa.

After all, this is history in the making, and who wouldn’t want to be a part of it?

Insight

The Africa Summit: Examining the world’s new economic engine

February 6, 2013 rachel_eaton

Isabelle Alenus-Crosby

On Wednesday 5 February 2013, Economist Events successfully convened an audience of 180 delegates, comprising leading figures from business, banking, government, media and consultancies, for their inaugural Africa Summit, at the Royal Garden Hotel in London.

Gong provided media and communications support for the event and hosted a breakfast meeting, Chaired by The Economist’s Business Editor, Robert Guest. The theme of Opportunity Africa: What’s Your Next Move? galvanised discussion among a handpicked group of companies keen to do more business on the Continent.

The Summit kicked off with a ministerial welcome by Mark Simmonds, Parliamentary Under Secretary of State of the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, President Johnson Sirleaf of Liberia followed up on her recent meeting with Prime Minister David Cameron and shared her belief that Africa is on schedule to reach the 2015 UN Millennium Development Goals thanks to unfaltering growth across the continent.

President Sirleaf stressed that in 2015 the UN Millennium Development Goals should immediately be followed by sustainability goals in each of Africa’s 54 countries, to ensure that the continent emerges fully on a global scale. She added that each African nation needs a stronger industrial basis first and foremost. Power, in the form of sustainable sources of energy, is needed to run factories, and the necessary infrastructure is required to transport the goods.

Mo Ibrahim, Chairman of the Mo Ibrahim Foundation, agreed that greener energies would be required to achieve sustainability goals. He added that Africa also needs Economic Integration. “Trade between African nations will ensure vibrant economies across the continent and only then will we be able to talk about ‘Africa’ as a whole.” He continued to say that whatever is needed to achieve this integration should be top of each government’s agenda.

Dr Ibrahim ended his speech by stating, “AID is the aspirin that helps ease the pain in some African countries. It adds up to 30 billion USD per year. TRADE is the health-giving vitamin that makes the continent strong and accounts for half a trillion USD per year.”

The ex-President of the World Bank for the Africa Region, Ms Obiageli Ezekwesili, said in her speech: “We need a strategy for encouraging sustainable long-term investment into the continent. The answer is simple; the answer is Rule of Law. With political governance improving all the time, many of Africa’s biggest problems will disappear in time. Young entrepreneurs are the future of Africa. We must give them the opportunity to help Africa reach its full potential. Good governance encourages entrepreneurship and transparency and accountability are therefore key.”

Renaissance Capital’s Global Chief Economist, Charles Robertson, said that the banking sector still has “room to boom” as it is inevitable that the African middle class, which is growing fast, will start borrowing. He added: “Africa needs more stock exchanges. To demonstrate the potential: The Nigerian economy is predicted to be bigger than Germany’s by 2037.”

Olam’s Managing Director, Ranveer Chauhan, said that his company could not survive without technology in Africa today. He sees technological innovation as being prevalent across the continent, and cited it as one of the main drivers of growth in agricultural best practice.

Herman Chinery-Hesse, Chairman at Softtribe, dwelt on the importance of Twitter, Facebook and the Internet to Africa. He said, “These know no borders and encourage innovative thinking among the young through discussions and easy access to information.”

During question time, Dr Abu-Leil Cooper from Barings Asset Management concluded that from an investor’s point-of-view, “investing with Africans is as important as investing in Africa.”

More information on the Africa Summit, including a long list of speakers, can be viewed here. The Economist Events continues its African programme with the Nigeria Summit 2013, to be held in Lagos on March 19^th-20^th.

Insight

The market that had bankers at Davos excited this year was Africa

January 30, 2013 rachel_eaton

Isabelle Alenus-Crosby

This is what Peter Sands, CEO of Standard Chartered, told Reuters at the World Economic Forum last Friday.

Many African politicians attended the Forum, above all to present their nations in a positive light and thus attract more investors.

The heads of state and government from Guinea, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Rwanda, Tanzania, Kenya and Mauritius all debated the future of their continent over dinner. The event was called an “Interactive Dinner Session”, and journalists were not allowed in. Only entrepreneurs and investors were. South Africa and Nigeria, the biggest economic powers in Africa south of the Sahara, didn’t feel the need to attend the dinner, but instead focused on promoting agriculture in their respective countries. Feeding Africa seems high on their agenda, following the expected population explosion. Nigeria intends to modernize its agriculture via large-scale investment programmes, knowing that its Human Resources are more important to the country’s future than its oil. The aim is to become self-sufficient and eventually an exporter.

One point where everyone agreed was that if Africa were to invest heavily into infrastructure, it could uplift all people still living in poverty.

Some studies suggest that some $100 billion (74.2 billion euros) would have to be invested each year to achieve real improvement, and African representatives at the Davos forum hoped to raise awareness for the issue. They argued that whoever fails to invest in Africa today, will be sorry tomorrow. And almost all attendees seemed to agree with them.

Finally, the European Central Bank president Mario Draghi ended the Forum by stating that “positive contagion” on financial markets was not yet feeding into the economy at large, but that the eurozone should see recovery in the second half of the year.

Good news all round…

Insight

Sign of the times: Nigeria’s very own Monopoly board game.

January 25, 2013 rachel_eaton

Isabelle Alenus-Crosby

A new report published by the World Bank has declared that as many as 38 of sub-Saharan Africa’s 48 countries could be regarded as ‘middle income’ by 2025.

Currently, 21 countries have middle-income status, and at least an additional 10 are therefore poised to transition to middle-income status over the coming decade on the back of prevailing growth rates.

In fact, if sub-Saharan Africa were one country, it would already be considered middle-income.

No wonder therefore that the Monopoly board game now has its first customised African edition (Kenya’s Kumiliki is a Monopoly rip-off).

Set in Lagos, Banana Island is the new Mayfair, and instead of simply going to jail, players are sent to “Kirikiri jail”, Lagos’s maximum-security prison. A fair warning for anyone deciding to mess with the city’s precious real estate sector. The chance cards include “for attempting to bribe a law enforcement agent, pay a fine”, as well as “You’ve been caught driving against traffic. Report for psychiatric evaluation”. The airport, bus station, shipping port and stock exchange stand in for the railroads and utilities of the original games set in Atlantic City and London.

The Nigerian metropolis is one of the fast-growing cities in the world and a new edition may already be called for in just a few years. In fact, most of “Makoko” no longer exists, making this brand-new edition already out-of-date. A clear sign of the times.